A broad set of indices offering granular insights across various facets of the Indian economy
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Near-term Outlook
The services sector is expected to remain in strong expansion, with the Services PMI likely to stay in the 54-56 range, supported by domestic demand and the festive season.
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India's industrial sector is expected to maintain strong growth in FY27, supported by public capital spending, rising order books and investment-led demand in capital and intermediate goods.
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Kharif output, particularly rice, is likely to be lower than last year given the deficient monsoon in key rice-growing regions of East India and the South Peninsula.
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The Consumer Inflation Index suggests inflation has moved from mild reflation to a high-inflation phase.
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The Equity Market Optimism Index suggests cautious sentiment, with markets expected to remain volatile but supported by strong domestic flows.
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India's external sector is expected to face greater pressure in the coming months due to high crude prices, foreign portfolio outflows and a weaker rupee.
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Bank credit growth is expected to moderate slightly to the 17–19% range as higher interest rates raise borrowing costs, although demand from infrastructure, housing and services should remain healthy.
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The Interest Rate Outlook Index has shifted from a “wait-and-watch” phase to a tightening phase, with earlier expectations of a prolonged pause at 5.25% replaced by the prospect of a rate hike cycle.
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